Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 12.469898 14.284306 16.240823 18.503727 21.045072 23.807095 27.032251
2025-04-06 9.672295 12.096636 14.915867 18.421655 22.648253 27.562545 33.690990
2025-04-13 7.790645 10.328613 13.430462 17.473681 22.574908 28.764684 36.807531
2025-04-20 6.926820 9.660391 13.147738 17.880002 24.084510 31.886846 42.376876
2025-04-27 6.247088 9.106890 12.893945 18.214230 25.422646 34.766227 47.694451
2025-05-04 5.540821 8.422584 12.374965 18.110122 26.120659 36.797216 51.962610
2025-05-11 4.905928 7.758333 11.801633 17.848645 26.536277 38.416053 55.700840
2025-05-18 4.452106 7.303440 11.470056 17.876342 27.319359 40.535135 60.184011
2025-05-25 4.109235 6.976009 11.285540 18.083447 28.343047 43.009647 65.249067
2025-06-01 3.755491 6.593136 10.978378 18.069653 29.018380 44.992028 69.673028
2025-06-08 3.408947 6.185598 10.594256 17.897888 29.425763 46.577527 73.561197
2025-06-15 3.174361 5.938996 10.439653 18.063194 30.340824 48.937013 78.675186
2025-06-22 3.034155 5.846014 10.534284 18.645308 31.959603 52.468190 85.772098
2025-06-29 2.767202 5.505412 10.191034 18.484915 32.381674 54.176815 90.154821
2025-07-06 2.400803 4.946797 9.428391 17.559784 31.488601 53.759987 91.172803
2025-07-13 2.284775 4.841238 9.443496 17.958742 32.800840 56.894299 97.924342
2025-07-20 2.169298 4.724842 9.427938 18.297524 34.020706 59.921248 104.614026
2025-07-27 2.001313 4.488676 9.174594 18.191870 34.463538 61.682400 109.301336
2025-08-03 1.828698 4.225623 8.849360 17.929719 34.610065 62.944125 113.198921
2025-08-10 1.707598 4.056699 8.688684 17.957395 35.264863 65.079923 118.627465
2025-08-17 1.617299 3.944034 8.627551 18.165387 36.249550 67.811942 125.159165
2025-08-24 1.509733 3.783078 8.457820 18.151521 36.821548 69.844352 130.559191
2025-08-31 1.394826 3.594029 8.216166 17.979065 37.083913 71.335255 135.065037